The posting
Job Description
Role: Actuarial Forecasting Lead
Duration: 12 months C2H
Location: Remote USA
Job Purpose
- The Principal Actuary is the senior individual-contributor specialist responsible for developing an integrated quantitative risk framework linking insurance-driven mobile-device claims, rapidly depreciating inventory assets, and future physical supply and disposition commitments. The role converts uncertainty in demand, recoverable value, and market conditions into actionable risk management decisions.
- This is a hands-on modeling position with no direct reports. The successful candidate must combine credentialed actuarial expertise in insurance claims and exposures with practical experience valuing physically delivered forwards, optional-volume agreements, or comparable structured physical supply arrangements. Physical settlement is the immediate focus; potential cash settlement is a longer-term capability.
Primary Job Accountabilities / Responsibilities
Insurance claims and exposure modeling | 25%
- Build and validate probabilistic claims-frequency, cohort, and exposure models using insured-device populations, claims history, policy conditions, product mix, device age, churn, and external drivers.
- Produce calibrated time-phased demand distributions by client, program, model family, and horizon; distinguish insured claims incidence from repair, replacement, substitution, and SKU-level fulfillment outcomes.
- Backtest assumptions, explain forecast error, and partner with Data Science to translate predicted claims into decision-ready forecasts.
Inventory valuation and financial risk | 25%
- Model depreciation, residual values, recoverability, liquidation discounts, price volatility, liquidity, obsolescence, and concentration across mobile-device inventory.
- Assess the joint impact of claims, future supply, secondary-market prices, repair yields, and inventory holdings using stochastic scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation, expected loss, tail-risk metrics, and stress tests.
- Provide forward-looking risk estimates and evidence for Finance-owned monthly inventory reserve assessments while distinguishing economic-risk outputs from accounting measurements.
Physical contract valuation and risk transfer | 20%
- Price and assess physically settled forward purchases and sales, structured supply or offtake agreements, volume-flex commitments, and deliverable purchase/sale options.
- Model strike or delivery prices, optional quantities, exercise timing, specifications, grading, counterparty performance, delivery terms, and embedded optionality; compare contract economics to spot transactions and inventory carry.
- Partner with Procurement, Treasury, Legal, and Accounting on risk controls and commercial structures; support exploration of cash-settled products only after adequate benchmark and governance capabilities exist.
Inventory portfolio optimization | 15%
- Integrate demand and market-value simulations to evaluate risk-adjusted buy, hold, repair, transfer, sell, and hedge decisions at model-family and portfolio levels.
- Quantify working capital, stockout exposure, purchasing premiums, expected depreciation, and tail-risk tradeoffs to propose practical exposure limits and hedging thresholds.
Technical modeling and governance | 10%
- Write reproducible Python and SQL models and document data lineage, parameters, validation, backtesting, assumption changes, and model limitations.
- Coordinate with the Forecasting Lead on integrated work-product quality; retain ownership of actuarial methodology, assumptions, and specialist model judgments.
Cross-functional leadership and capability development | 5%
Establish common risk terminology, influence planning and procurement decisions without direct authority, and help develop the enterprise inventory-risk methodology.
Communicate complex probability and valuation findings to Supply Chain, Finance, Actuarial, Risk, and executive stakeholders.
Management Responsibility
- Individual contributor; no direct or indirect people-management responsibility. Serves as the senior technical authority for actuarial and risk valuation methodology, mentors colleagues, and may coordinate cross-functional working groups.
Financial Responsibility
- No independent purchase, trade, or reserve-approval authority. Develops quantitative recommendations influencing inventory working capital, economic risk limits, contract valuation, and reserve inputs; Procurement, Treasury, Legal, Risk, and Finance retain approval authorities.
Required Experience, Skills, and Knowledge
- Hold an active professional actuarial credential (ACAS, FCAS, ASA, FSA, or recognized international actuarial equivalent). A CERA designation alone does not replace the base actuarial credential.
- Demonstrated hands-on professional experience developing or materially validating insurance claims-frequency, exposure-based, or comparable insurance predictive-risk models.
- Demonstrated hands-on experience valuing or pricing physically delivered forward, offtake, volume-flex, commodity, or asset supply contracts with meaningful delivery obligations or embedded optionality; theoretical coursework alone is insufficient.
- 8+ years of relevant experience spanning actuarial modeling, enterprise or asset risk, physical-market contract economics, and quantitative decision support.
- Bachelor's degree in actuarial science, statistics, mathematics, quantitative finance, economics, engineering, or a closely related discipline.
- Advanced stochastic simulation, financial risk modeling, calibration, sensitivity analysis, tail-risk measurement, and evaluation of correlated exposure.
- Strong hands-on Python and SQL proficiency; ability to design models, independently inspect model code, and explain methods and commercial implications.
- Demonstrated ability to work with incomplete market data, communicate uncertainty, and navigate cross-functional decisions with strong ethical judgment.
Preferred Experience, Skills, and Knowledge
- CERA or advanced enterprise-risk/financial-risk credential in addition to a base actuarial credential.
- Experience in mobile devices, electronics resale, inventory financing, physical commodities, or another market with steep depreciation and limited liquidity.
- Experience with risk-adjusted optimization, supply chain planning, repair operations, or secondary-market pricing.
- Familiarity with inventory valuation accounting and derivative accounting review processes, while recognizing Finance and Accounting as decision owners.
- Experience implementing governed enterprise quantitative models and collaborating with commercial supply or procurement teams.
Measures of Success
- Calibration and accuracy of claims distributions; quality and explainability of economic inventory-risk estimates; usefulness of physical-contract pricing decisions; repeatable model controls; measurable risk-adjusted inventory outcomes.
Additional Information
All your information will be kept confidential according to EEO guidelines.
